A new forecasting solution enables power traders and analysts to improve decision-making and strengthen risk management amid increasing market volatility
Cologne / Essen, January 2026 – Volatile will present a new generation of short-term power market forecasts at E‑world energy & water 2026. Probabilistic forecasts for day-ahead and intraday markets delivered by the Cologne-based company detect shifts in market dynamics before they occur, enabling power traders, portfolio managers and analysts to optimize decisions and manage risk with greater precision.
Probabilistic forecasting: Revealing what others miss
As renewables take a larger share of Europe’s power mix, markets provide more opportunities than ever. Price spikes of several hundred euros per megawatt hour, negative prices, and weather-driven demand swings pose new challenges for traders determined to exploit these opportunities. Point- and ensemble forecasting models reach their limits here: they treat extreme events as statistical outliers rather than quantifiable scenarios, resulting in missed opportunities and underestimated risks.
Volatile addresses this challenge by delivering a fully probabilistic modeling pipeline that integrates regional weather data with physics-based generation models and market dynamics. Instead of producing a single expected price, Volatile’s forecasts include uncertainty bands that describe ranges of possible outcomes and their likelihood, providing a realistic view of market risk. These bands remain narrow during stable market conditions and widen during volatile periods, making uncertainty explicit and allowing traders to quantify risks before markets move, thereby supporting earlier position adjustments.
Full coverage across day-ahead and intraday markets
Volatile’s forecasts cover the full range of short-term power markets, including intraday continuous and auction price forecasts alongside day-ahead prices, load, and renewable generation. This enables traders to optimize not just their initial position, but every adjustment up to delivery.
Forecasts are updated hourly and available both via an analytics platform and through API for direct integration into existing trading systems.
„Our probabilistic approach gives traders the signals they need to navigate both day-ahead and intraday markets,“ says Dr. Jan Priesmann, CEO of Volatile. „Anticipating shifts before they materialize and managing risk across the full trading cycle.“
First power traders are already integrating the company’s probabilistic forecasts into their trading workflows to enhance decision-making and improve risk-adjusted performance. A straightforward onboarding process, combined with a free trial and built-in benchmarking, allows customers to quickly validate the value of probabilistic forecasts within their own systems.
About Volatile
Volatile is a strategic partner for short-term power trading. The company develops probabilistic forecasts for day-ahead and intraday markets that anticipate market dynamics and provide a realistic view of market risk. Volatile supports power traders, utility companies, and market analysts in optimizing trading strategies and managing positions across European short-term power markets.
Volatile will present their solutions in the Innovation Area in Hall 4, Booth 4D120.
Press Contact
Volatile GmbH
Fabian Stupperich
Lindenstraße 14
50674 Köln
Tel: +49 (0) 178 4520296
Information:
linkedin.com/company/volatile-energy